GS: The Worst is Over for the Office Market.

July 11, 2024

Good afternoon, everyone.

  • Goldman Sachs says: the worst is over for the office market.
  • Walgreens will shut down a considerable number of U.S. stores.
  • “Flight-to-quality” is the norm in the office sector.

Market Snapshot

Goldman Sachs: The Worst is Over for Office.

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash
  • After declining for eight consecutive quarters, transaction volumes have started turning around, the same time it took during the Global Financial Crisis.
  • The market is likely to bounce along the bottom for a few quarters before turning to recovery mode.
  • Trophy and Class A assets are the main driving force in this market, attracting high quality tenants, keeping those buildings’ valuations at high levels.
  • Manhattan is showing positive leasing activity, as tenants signed 11.5M SF in office space leases in H1 2024, up 11% year-over-year.
  • Concurrently, San Francisco is going through an AI boom with 25% of new tenants being AI-related companies, and office tour activity is up 73% month-over-month in May.
  • Click on the button below to read the full story from Bisnow.
Read Full Story on Bisnow

Chart of the Week

Number of openings by category/industry in the U.S. in 2024.

Why Climate Change is No Longer a ‘Joke’ for the Real Estate Sector.

Climate change is no longer a distant threat; it’s a current reality reshaping the real estate landscape. The industry must now focus on resilience and adaptation to tackle these environmental risks head-on. Extreme weather events, like hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, are becoming more frequent and severe, directly impacting property values, operational costs, and tenant demand.

It's crucial to recognize that climate change isn't just a future problem; it’s affecting us right now. Real estate stakeholders must integrate climate risk assessments into their decision-making processes. Properties are already facing physical damage and increased operational costs due to severe weather events. Proactively addressing these risks is essential to safeguarding investments and ensuring the longevity of assets.

Resilience planning is a key strategy for protecting real estate assets. This involves developing buildings and infrastructure that can withstand climate-related disruptions. Utilizing advanced building technologies, such as smart sensors and automated systems, can help monitor and manage environmental conditions in real-time. Incorporating sustainable design practices, like using renewable energy sources and integrating green spaces, also enhances property resilience. Additionally, robust maintenance strategies are vital to ensure buildings can endure extreme weather and recover quickly from any damage, minimizing downtime and protecting tenant well-being.

While the initial investment in resilience and sustainability can be high, the long-term financial benefits are significant. Resilient and sustainable properties tend to attract higher demand, allowing owners to charge premium rents and maintain higher occupancy rates. These buildings also have lower insurance costs due to their reduced risk of damage from extreme weather. Over time, this results in decreased operational costs and increased profitability. It's essential for stakeholders to weigh the initial costs against these long-term advantages to make informed investment decisions.

Staying compliant with evolving environmental regulations is more important than ever. Governments worldwide are implementing stricter sustainability standards aimed at reducing carbon footprints and promoting renewable energy use. Being proactive about these regulations not only helps avoid penalties but also opens up opportunities for incentives and tax breaks for green buildings. Moreover, aligning with these standards enhances a property's marketability, as tenants and investors increasingly prioritize sustainability in their choices.

To embed climate resilience into core strategies, stakeholders should integrate climate risk assessments at all stages of the real estate lifecycle. This means considering climate risks from the planning and development phases through to operation and management. Developers should conduct thorough environmental impact assessments before starting construction to identify potential climate risks and design buildings accordingly. Property managers should regularly update maintenance plans to address new climate threats. By making climate resilience a fundamental part of their strategy, real estate businesses can ensure long-term sustainability and value creation for their assets.

Read JLL’s Full Report

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