Banks are 40% more exposed to CRE than we thought.

July 11, 2024

Good morning, everyone.

  • Banks are 40% more exposed to CRE than thought by regulators.
  • San Bernardino is poised for tremendous growth.
  • AI will replace 85M jobs by 2025, according to the World Economic Forum.

Market Snapshot

Banks are 40% more exposed to CRE debt than regulators realized.

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash
  • Regulators tend to only take direct lending, i.e. debt tied to a building, into account while forgetting to account for indirect lending through REITs.
  • REITs need to distribute at least 90% of their profits to investors, forcing them to maintain a low cash, low liquidity position and making them rely on credit lines when redemption requests are numerous.
  • According to NYU economics professor Viral Acharya, and Frankfurt School of Finance and Management assistant professor Max Jager, banks’ exposure to commercial real estate grows by 40% when indirect lending is taken into account.
  • How big of a threat CRE debt is for banks remains unclear. Morgan Stanley holds the highest proportion of its credit lines committed to CRE among the five largest banks by market capitalization.
  • At the end of Q1, office distress was standing at $38B, while large banks were holding $345B of indirect exposure to CRE at the end of Q4 2022, more than three fold Q4 2013’s amount.
  • Click on the button below to read the full story from The Real Deal.
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Chart of the Week

The chart illustrates the popularity of celebrity-owned restaurant openings in various U.S. cities from 2019 to 2024. Los Angeles is way ahead with 38 new celebrity eateries, showing its status as a top destination for star-powered dining. Atlanta follows with 24, highlighting its growing appeal in the food scene.

Other notable cities include Las Vegas with 19 openings and Phoenix with 18, both becoming major hubs for celebrity culinary ventures. This trend shows that celebrities are expanding their restaurant investments beyond traditional hotspots, tapping into new markets and bringing unique dining experiences to a wider audience.

Overall, the data reflects a shift towards celebrity-driven dining experiences across the country, with stars using their fame to create popular and exciting restaurant destinations in diverse urban areas.

Excessive Industrial Supply is Driving Up Vacancy Rates.

In the first quarter of 2024, the U.S. industrial real estate market continued to face challenges with supply and demand.

For the eighth straight quarter, more new space was being built than was being occupied. Out of over 100 million square feet of new space completed, only about one-quarter was taken up.

On a positive note, leasing activity saw a modest increase of 2.2% compared to last year, totaling 178 million square feet, with lease renewals making up 35% of this.

Big leases, especially those over 500,000 square feet, went up by 8%, indicating strong demand for large industrial spaces.

Despite the boom in new buildings, net absorption, which measures how much space is actually being used, dropped to its lowest point since 2010 due to more businesses moving out. The amount of sublease space available also surged by nearly 10% over the last quarter, hitting 195.1 million square feet, the highest since tracking began.

This suggests that more companies are giving up their spaces, which might present opportunities for others looking for cheaper options through subleases.

Rents kept climbing, with the average asking rent increasing by 1% from the last quarter and 3.7% from last year, reaching a record high of $11.15 per square foot. The rent actually being paid also nudged up by 0.9% after a previous dip. These rising rents show that despite higher vacancy rates, demand for industrial space is strong enough to keep pushing prices up.

Construction activity was still high, with 125.1 million square feet completed in the first quarter. However, more than half of this new space—58.2%—remained vacant, driving the overall industrial vacancy rate up to 5.3%. This is an increase of 50 basis points from the previous quarter and 180 basis points from last year.

Meanwhile, new construction starts continued to fall, dropping to 32.8 million square feet, the lowest since the pandemic began and down by 52% from last year. This decline might signal a slowdown in future supply.

Regionally, the South led the way with 109.2 million square feet under construction, followed closely by the West with 106.6 million square feet. Phoenix stood out, with the highest net absorption at 4.5 million square feet and the most space under construction, mostly for speculative distribution facilities.

These regional differences show how various parts of the country are experiencing different levels of industrial growth and demand, shaped by local economic conditions and market needs.

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