🏢 Blackstone says CRE has hit rock bottom, has it?

July 11, 2024
  • Blackstone believes real estate has hit rock bottom, and they have $191B to spend.
  • An increasing number of multifamily owners are borrowing from private debt, which can be risky.
  • A housing deal finally passes in New York with lawmakers reinstating property tax breaks and tenant protections.

Market Snapshot

Blackstone Thinks Real Estate Has Hit Rock Bottom, and They Have $191B to Spend.

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash
  • According to Blackstone’s COO, Jon Gray, a recovery is on the way, particularly in the multifamily sector.
  • More clearly, they are not waiting for a clear recovery to invest with already $25B in Q1, according to what Gray said during their last earnings call.
  • They pointed out that the same amount of homes is currently being built as it was in the 1960s, despite double the population.
  • A supply imbalance is likely to occur with construction of multifamily and logistics properties being down 50% and 80% respectively.
  • Nonetheless, they too, are waiting for the FED to slash interest rates, paving the way for a proper recovery.
  • For now, we are in a “seed planting period”, according to Gray.
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Chart of the Week

Office CMBS delinquency and special servicing rates

  • As most employees who used to work in an office space full-time prior to the Covid pandemic have switched to hybrid or even full-remote work, vacancy rates in “non-prime” office buildings have risen to all-time highs, leading to
  • 6.7% of office CMBS debt was “delinquent” at the end of March, and add another 3.9% that went to “special servicing” on top of that. Those numbers have more than tripled in a 2-year span.

U.S. Shopping Centers Have Never Been So Strong

U.S shopping centers are boasting a near two-decade low vacancy rate, with just 5.4% of vacancy.

Even though foot traffic is slowly coming down compared to a year ago, the U.S. economy is mainly sustained thanks to retail activity.

Nonetheless, the absorption ended up being slightly negative (-1.2M SF, country-wide) in Q1, which can be explained by a lack of new developments and, as simple as it seems, available space for tenants to move in since the pandemic, as well as closures from some very large retailers.

Cushman & Wakefield insists that the situation is even better than pre-Covid with consumers increasingly favoring in-person shopping experiences.

As consumers are now prioritizing experiences and travel, shopping centers relying too heavily on discretionary spending may find themselves in trouble in the near future.

Despite 1,700 retail closures in Q1, more than 3,000 openings have been announced.

If you want to know more about what’s happening in the shopping center asset class, the full report is available by clicking on the button below.

Read JLL’s Full Report

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